Granberg I., Golitsyn G., Istoshin N., Ginzburg A., Efimenko N., Povolotskaya N., Rogoza A., Belikov I., Maximenkov L., Rubinstein K.

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Cardiovascular Scientific and Production Complex of Rosmedtekhnology, Moscow, State Institution «Pyatigorsk Research Institute of Curortology» of the Federal Agency of Public Health of Russian Federation, Pyatigorsk, Stavropol region, State Institution «Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia», Moscow, Russia

On the basis of the complex climatologic and physiological studies of the impact of weather on patients with cardiovascular disease (with participation of A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS (IAP) and State Institution «Pyatigorsk Research Institute of Curortology» of the Federal Agency of Public Health of Russian Federation (PRIC)), the pathogenicity indices were developed. These indices integrally take into account various structural elements of near surface atmosphere, radiation and geomagnetic components, which makes it possible to develop the methods for early warning of meteopathic reactions among the population and to improve a medical weather forecast system. At present, the efficiency of these indices is being studied to predict the state of cardiovascular patients in a hospital located in a big city (Russian Cardiovascular Scientific and Production Complex of Rosmedtekhnology (RCSPC)). In general, these studies within the framework of the national project «Human Health» are aimed at improving the health of the population.

The results of the studies of the PRIC and other medical institutions of Russia show that, in recent years, the number of people with meteorological hypersensitivity has dramatically increased. Meteorological hypersensitivity causes bad feeling, influenza, and SARS diseases, aggravation of chronic diseases, cardiovascular crises, and even deaths.

If there is a well-organized public information system (radio, television, Internet), the early warning of meteorotropic reactions can be considered as an effective method of improving the public health, available for almost all people.

The report clarifies the spatiotemporal relationship of synoptical, anthropogenic and helio-geophysical weather characteristics with meteotropic reactions of patients having cardiovascular diseases; the coefficients are specified for various parameters of weather pathogenicity index; and the principles of the methods of early warning of meteotropic reactions among the population are formulated. To meet these challenges, Meteorological Office of Russia has established a special version of the model MM5 with steps of 12 km and 4 km for specialized daily weather forecasts for south-western part of Moscow for 3 days ahead.

The earlier PRIC and IAP studies found evidence of high biotropism of not only individual meteo-synoptic but also anthropogenic factors of air pollution, which sharply reduce the recreational properties of the climate of resorts. Consideration for these factors proved to be very important in increasing the efficiency of regional recovery treatment, in solving the problems of environmental management, and in making decisions to reduce anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere in the region of the Caucasus Mineral Waters (CMW). On the basis of the studies conducted earlier, we consider that the dependence of meteopathy on weather, geophysical, and anthropogenic factors can be represented in the form: Weather Pathogenicity Index (WPI) for Medical Weather Forecast, developed by N.P. Povolotskaya, I.G. Granberg, N.V. Efimenko, and A.P. Sklyar:

WPI= SPP (k1 T + k2 ΔTbd + k3 ΔTcn + k4 P + k5 Δ Pbd + k6 ΔPcn + k7 V + k8 N + k9 UF-B + k10 e + k11O2 + k12 ΣI/KUI + k13 О3 + k14 СА + k15 S) / n,

where: SPP — synoptic weather type; Т — air temperature; ΔTbd, ΔTcn — temperature interdiurnal variability and deviation from climatic norm; P — air pressure; Δ Pbd, Δ Pcn — pressure interdiurnal variability and deviation from climatic norm; V — wind speed; N — low cloudiness in percent of the sky cover; UF-B — intensity of UF solar erythema-making radiation; e — aqueous tension; O2 — oxygen mass content; ΣI/KUI —light ions sum to ions unipolarity factor ratio; О3 — hourly ozone concentration; CA — mass concentration of sub-micron aerosol; S — dangerous meteors; n — number of parameters. However, coefficients, depending on parameter biotropism, — k1; k2; k3; k4 and so on — are depended on synoptic-meteorological specificity of corresponding region, on distinctions of distribution of aerosol and gas pollution of surface atmosphere, and have to be improved (at the present time those are determined, on a first approximation, for low-mountain resorts).

The PRIC and IAP system of medical weather forecasts for the CMW resorts can be used for other regions of Russia. But for a wider application of the system, it is necessary to continue the studies of the impact of the environment on people, to specify the calculation of the index of biotropism of various elements of the weather for other regions: urban metropolis, coastal recreational areas (which are very different from the mountain recreation areas having the features, such as high-altitude increased UV background radiation, natural hypobaric and hypoxic conditions, mountain-valley circulation, a peculiar distribution of aerosol pollution and photochemical processes, etc.).

The proposed methodology for the early warning of meteotropic reactions of people could be extended to other major cities and recreation areas. For an operative warning of meteotropic reactions of people in these regions, the indices of pathogenicity of the main characteristics of the environment will be developed as well as recommendations for the national system of medical weather forecast, which includes a round-the-clock automatic monitoring of the regime of solar radiation, atmospheric characteristics, and the ecological state of the environment.

The studies are conducted within the framework of the Project of Basic Research Program of RAS «Basic Sciences for Medicine» and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 07-05-12069-ofi_a).

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